• 经济和地产行业发展保持稳定
  • 国际资本活跃，2019年大型项目并购尤为频繁
  • 当地核心地区在售区块所剩无几，资产升值潜力大

经济稳步发展，各行业保持上升势头

自2008年经济危机后迄今已跨过11年，拉斯维加斯经济发展势头依旧保持强势。回顾2019年，拉斯维加斯连续第5年成为全球第一大会展市场，并在今年位居国际游客赴美目的地前二，全美城市总游客量排名前五。酒店入住率连续三年超过90%，并在今年达到92%的新高。商业、工业、旅游、体育、科技等各大行业发展迅猛，2019年预计GDP增幅5%，领先纽约、芝加哥、洛杉矶等美国主要城市。

酒店行业发展良好，平均房间价格同比去年增长3.9%，单房利润率同比增长4.6%，2019上半年休闲和酒店行业总收入同比增长3.6%，行业就业率同比增长2.4%。酒店房间总量14.3万，同比去年几乎持平。未来酒店房间短缺现象将愈加明显。

2019年第3季度工业厂房吸纳量净增12万平米，工业用房空置率仅3.5%，为过去4年最低。工业就业率同比增长1.9%。

零售店面空置率仅6.9%，为过去3年最低，店面租金均价增长率同比去年增长15%，为过去4年最高。

多单元住宅总数稳步上涨，2018-2019年度空置率稳定在4.2%左右，平均租金增幅约8%，其中高端住宅租金增幅最为明显，超过10%。2019年公寓住宅出售总价超过1.5亿美元。

拉斯维加斯房价指数连续26年保持上涨，持续时间位居全美第二。过去12月房价增幅约18%。

大型地产投资接连不断

在过去4年，拉斯维加斯地产交易和投资呈井喷式爆发，总投资额已超过200亿美元，保守估计将为该地区带来超过7万个工作机会。诸如马来西亚云顶中华世界酒店、环球商业中心、麦迪逊花园球体、NFL突袭者体育场、枫丹白露酒店等诸多数十亿及项目启动，并将在未来2-3年间竣工开业。这些地标级项目将把这座世界娱乐之都提升到前所未及的新高度。

仅在2019年，拉斯维加斯资本市场风起云涌，国际地产投资商、华尔街顶级基金、博彩业大亨等各界巨头纷纷斥巨资加码，抢夺着这座高速发展的赌城最后为数不多的战略项目。其中主要投资项目包括：

  • 黑石宣布42.5亿美元收购美高美旗下宝丽嘉酒店，并以2.45亿美元年租金出租于美高美集团，对黑石而言，该收购价是其年收入（租金）的17倍, 资本化率5.76%
  • 博彩业大亨菲尔·拉芬宣布8.25亿美元收购美高美旗下马戏团酒店，该酒店曾位居美高美集团酒店现金流第一
  • NBA雄鹿队所有者宣布5.16亿美元收购里奥酒店，未来2-3年内将大概率出售于终端开发商进行重新开发或作为拉斯维加斯第一家NBA球场
  • 美国终极格斗UFC推动者Fertitta家族6亿美元棕榈树酒店改建项目完成一期竣工，该改建总投资为拉斯维加斯历史第一，目前棕榈树酒店已成为全城最受欢迎的旅游目的地之一
  • 纽约21世纪百货创始人、华尔街投资人Gindi兄弟宣布1.73亿美元收购拉斯维加斯大道58亩区块，未来该区块将主要围绕零售、餐饮等配套硬件作为主要开发方向
  • 拉斯维加斯大道经济型酒店丽塔酒店以2亿美元出售
  • 希尔顿旗下汉普顿拉斯维加斯机场酒店以2亿美元出售

核心区域剩余战略资产几近售罄，资产升值空间广阔

自2016年至今，随着美国本土资本、华尔街以及国际大型地产公司的先后入场，2019年的拉斯维加斯日新月异。新地标级项目接连启动，诸多大型资产更名易主。未来这些项目的竣工和交接势必将为这座赌城带来更为新鲜和广阔的流量大潮，而各大资本的投资也将在未来3-5年开花结果。

在2019年10月宣布了对马戏团酒店的收购后，菲尔·拉芬曾在一次采访中表示，目前拉斯维加斯中心区域的大型项目所剩无几，而马戏团酒店更是拉斯维加斯大道地区目前最后一块在售项目。

据高力所发布2019年拉斯维加斯前三季度土地报告，工业、商业和住宅用地价格持续上涨。欧玺认为其部分原因来自于高密度的土地收购、开发以及资产并购活动。随着今年国际贸易摩擦的持续升级，国内对外投资管控逐步趋严化，国内投资人在境外的投资选择原来越少。根据欧玺资本过往在当地近10年的长期观察，作为一个成长性标的，高速发展的新兴一线城市拉斯维加斯富有充足潜力。

  • Steady growth in the overall economy and real estate
  • Active capital investment in Las Vegas
  • Available prime land scarce, raising appreciation potential

Steady Growth and Upward Momentum in All Sectors

11 years after the 2008 Recession, the economy of Las Vegas remain steadily growing. In 2019, Las Vegas was ranked as the No.1 world convention market for the 5th consecutive year, top 2 destination for international tourists, and top 5 of most visited US cities. Hotel occupancy rate reached over 90% for the third consecutive year, and culminating in 92% in 2019. Significant capital investment has been made in all sectors such as commercial, industrial, tourism, sports and technology. Estimated GDP growth rate in 2019 will reach 5%, precedes many other major US cities such as New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.

Hospitality development remains healthy. Year over year growth in Average Daily Rate (ADR) was 3.9%, 4.6% growth in Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR). In the first half of 2019, taxable sales in the leisure and hospitality sector grew by 3.6% year-over-year, 2.4% growth in employment in the sector. Hotel room inventory remain the same level at ~143,000. Shortage of hotel rooms in the near future will result in a pressing need for new hotel projects.  

1.33 million square feet of industrial net absorption were added in 2019 Q3, industrial vacancy rate 3.5%, lowest in the past 4 years. Year over year employment rate increase by 1.9%.

Retail store vacancy rate 6.9%, lowest in the past 3 years. Average asking lease rate increased by 15% (year over year), highest in the past 4 years.

Multifamily inventory keeps growing, year over year vacancy rate increased 4.2%, average rental rate increased by 8%, thereinto, premium properties rental rate increased by 10%. Total multifamily unit sales revenue is estimated to reach 150 million USD in 2019.

Housing price index has grown for 26 consecutive years in Las Vegas, second longest in US, home price increased by 18% in the past 12 months.

Active Capital Investment

In the past 4 years, over $20 billion dollars has been targeted for investment into Las Vegas, resulting in over 70K jobs for the area. New multi-billion mega projects such as Malaysia’s Genting Resort, Global Business District, MSG Sphere, NFL Raiders Stadium, and the Drew are estimated to finish and open in the next 2-3 years. The capital of entertainment will soon introduce a new look to the world.

In 2019, there has been a significant capital inflow targeted towards Las Vegas.  International real estate groups and top wall street PE firms are entering the market and acquiring strategic projects in this fast-growing town:

  • Blackstone announced to the acquisition of Bellagio Las Vegas for 4.25 billion USD with a lease back to MGM for an annual rent of 245 million USD. The purchase price implies 17 times of annual income and 5.76% CAP rate for Blackstone
  • Casino giant Phil Ruffin announced the acquisition of Circus Circus Las Vegas for 825 million USD, the hotel’s cash flow was ranked No.1 in all MGM properties
  • NBA Milwaukee Bucks co-owner announced the acquisition of Rio hotel for 516 million USD. In 2-3 years, the property will be sold to an end-user for redevelopment or potentially be the first NBA stadium of Las Vegas
  • UFC promoter, casino/hotel investor Fertitta family broke Las Vegas record by investing 600 million USD in Palms resort for renovation, the hotel has reopened after the commencement of its phase 1 construction in Q2 2019. Since its reopening, Palms has become one of the most popular destinations in Las Vegas
  • New York 21 Century founder, wall street investor Gindi brothers announced the acquisition of a 9.5 acre parcel in Las Vegas strip for 173 million USD. The property will be built for retail, restaurant and entertainment
  • The Rita Suites in Las Vegas strip was sold for 200 million USD
  • Las Vegas Hampton airport Inn & Suites of Hilton was sold for 200 million USD

Strategic Asset

Since 2016, there has been a wave of capital investment pouring into Las Vegas. Commencement of these projects will bring generate substantially more traffic into the town.

During an interview after the announcement of Circus Circus acquisition in October 2019, Phil Ruffin mentioned that at current stage, there are very few large scale projects that remain in the Las Vegas core area. Especially in the Strip, Circus Circus was considered as one the last pieces of its magnitude. 

Since 2011, Oasis has actively invested into the Las Vegas land market. In 2017, the company secured LVSM which is located at the intersection of Las Vegas strip and Spring Mountain Road.

According to Collier’s 2019 Q1-3 land report, industrial, commercial and residential land price keeps increasing. Oasis believes part of the reasons are high density of land & asset acquisition and development activities. Under the escalating international trade friction in 2019, stricter cross-border investment control by the central government, investment options for Chinese investors are very limited. Based on over 10 years of local observation, as a fast-developing new Tier 1 city, Oasis considers Las Vegas as a prime investment target with high growth potential.