2016年度投注方向

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迈入2016年,我们 Oasis Partners 已经决定把我们的精力集中于走在市场趋势的前列。今天,我们着重讨论我们对未来的判断以及将会触发我们团队进一步投资行动的关键事件。我们将一如既往地坚持将复杂的事情简单化、高效化,以节省我们有限的时间和精力顺应大势,将执行力最大化。

1 – 放眼2016年的全球市场,美国已经找到胜过其他经济体的最佳位置。对于股市而言,只有那些快速响应市场的人才能在横向行情中获利。基于时间价值比时,我们仍然选择从房地产入手,以便从经济实力强大的美国盈利。Oasis将在2月份启动新的私募基金“齿峰房地产合伙企业(Sierra Real Estate Partnership)”,作为在我们最看好的菲尼克斯、拉斯维加斯和西雅图获取更高利润的载体。Case Schiller 20-bg


2 – 六年前,我们将高估了的加币换成了美国资产。过去五年中,我们帮助中国的会员,在海外进行分散投资,以防止高估的人民币贬值。三年前,很少有中国人相信人民币的强势会出现逆转,但是我们集团审时度势,采取谨慎措施,合理定位。

USD CNY TrendJPY CNY Trend2016年,我们只关心中国一级城市房地产市场的表现。我们视上海、北京、深圳房地产资产表现为“爆发点(tipping point)”指标。由于房地产获利盘较大加上房地产开发处于小的休整期,所以当前价格水平面临支撑较弱的风险。为了在市场建立强大的支撑水平,价格需要在一定时期内保持稳定。Chinasalesroom就全球市场而言,如果出现疲软(例如香港和新加坡),则信心大失,国内银行系统受重创,全世界主要交易所也将出现半崩溃状态,最终可能导致短期经济衰退。只要中国在房地产价格方面不丧失信心,全球市场将继续稳中向好。

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3. 应对大宗商品市场负面趋势最终变化的前期准备:我们集团正在开发加拿大和墨西哥的资源,作为寻求房地产高增长机会、控制风险的最好办法。加拿大和墨西哥两国都从邻国美国强大的经济实力中大大受益,根据他们签订的自由贸易协议,产品和投资可自由流通。国际公司继续在墨西哥加快增长步伐。按当前汇率计算,相对于美金而言,加拿大和墨西哥货币都处于被低估状态。

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4. – 工业商品已崩溃,但是黄金价格继续保持坚挺,维持在1100美元/盎司的价位。我们继续看好黄金市场,正在准备前期准入工作,今后几年逐步加大投入力度。

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5. – 因为我们来自加拿大,很多人都向我们询问关于石油的问题。我们认为,如果油价涨到每桶45~50美元,石油公司和富油国将会销售更多成品油。对所有大经济体来说,石油价格下降都是一种巨大的刺激,就好比数万亿的流动资产在挖掘所有商业和消费潜力。因为石油价格下降,仅中国今年就能节省2000多亿美元;因为其他材料的成本下降,中国还能节省2600亿美元。
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我们一直都在寻找促使我们调整战略和资金投入标的的数据和活动。我们鼓励大家集中精力,顺势而为,保持耐心和谨慎的态度等待时机成熟。
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2016 Oasis Macro Bets

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EN 英语 – 中文 (CN)

One month into 2016, we at Oasis Partners have more or less decided where we will focus our attention and energy to stay ahead of the markets.   Today we will highlight where we are betting and also identify key events that will trigger further action from our team.  As always, our aim is to keep things simple and efficient, saving our limited time and energies to execute and ride the larger trends.

1 – For 2016, when looking at global markets, the United States finds itself to be best positioned to outperform other economies.  Those that are more nimble will be able to catch profits in what we expect to be a sideways stockmarket.  When considering value- for-time, we will still use real estate as the most efficient proxy to profit from a strong U.S. economy.  In February Oasis will launch a new private fund called ‘Sierra Real Estate Partnership’ as a vehicle to capture more profits in our favorite cities of Phoenix, Las Vegas and Seattle.Case Schiller 20-bg


2 – Six years ago we shifted our overvalued Canadian dollars into U.S. assets.   For the past 5 years, we have helped our members in China to diversify abroad to protect from the overvalued RMB’s depreciation.  Three years ago not many in China were convinced of a reversal of the RMB’s strength, but our group took prudent steps and is comfortably positioned.

USD CNY TrendJPY CNY TrendFor 2016, the only single event coming from China that we care about is the behaviour of the real estate market in the Tier 1 cities.  We regard the performance of property asses in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen as the ‘tipping point’ indicator.  The current price levels have weak support because large percentage gains were achieved with little ‘rest’ along the way.  Periods of price stability are necessary in order for markets to establish strong support levels.  ChinasalesroomWhere global markets are concerned, if weakness (similar to Hong Kong and Singapore) develops, then confidence will deteriorate, and serious damage could be done to the domestic banking system, and major exchanges around the world will see mini-crashes and possible short recessions.  So long as the China does not lose confidence in real estate prices, the world markets will continue their steady upward trajectories.China Reserves level


3.  Early preparation for an eventual change in the negative trends in the commodities markets.   Our group is developing its resources across Canada and Mexico as the best bets to find high growth real estate opportunities with limited risk.  Both countries benefit greatly from being right next to the strong United States economy, and the free trade agreement between them allows products and investments to flow freely.  Global companies continue to grow their footprint in Mexico.  At current exchange rates, Canada and Mexico are extremely undervalued relative to America.

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4.  Industrial commodities have crashed, but gold has held stubbornly to the $1100 usd/ounce range.  We continue to be bullish on gold and are preparing to take initial entry steps to gradually build an allocation in the coming years.

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5.  We get asked about oil a lot, and coming with our Canadian roots, for the next few years, we expect oil companies and oil rich nations to heavily sell more product if the price rises above $45 – $50 per barrel.  Cheap oil is a great stimulus for all the large economies and is equivalent to multi-trillion liquidity boost to all business and consumers.  China alone will save more than $200 billion usd  this year because of cheap oil and a further $260 billion usd on other cheap materials.
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We are always looking for data and events that will cause us to alter our strategy and our financial bets.  We encourage everyone to focus on the larger trends and move patiently and deliberately when the opportunities are ripe.
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